'I enjoyed reading the new publication Big Questions of Our Time very much.
It was a thought-provoking book that was perfect reading.'
- Mr. Carl Bildt, Foreign Minister of Sweden
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Your thoughts are as always very stimulating. I would add a few key unknowns
that will probably have a dramatic impact over our societies:
- Will the world be divided into a limited number of civilizational powers
(US & Europe, India, China, Brazil & Latin America, Turkey, Russia, Iran)
competing for influence and resources in Africa, the Middle East and Central
Asia, and will this result into a direct confrontation between 2 or more of
these powers?
- Will the trend to open countries to the free flow of goods, capital and
persons be reversed and fresh barriers to trade and migrations be installed?
- Will we see a defining disaster like 9/11th, either natural or man-made?
- Will the revival of Islam crystallize into a united Arab or Islamic world
that would also join the club of what I call "civilizational powers?"
- How will the rise of non-western powers, with their own values, translate
into world governance? Will the UN Security Council become meaningless or
will it regain its power on the basis of new sets of rules reflecting the
new balance of power?
- Will we meet up the challenge of a better redistribution of resources
between rich and poor both within societies and between the countries and
regions of the world? Or will the world become a more unjust place? And how
will the frustrations caused by increased injustice be expressed? Will there
be more black spots, no-go zones Somalia type in the world map? Where?
Jean Daniel Ruch
Ambassador
Special Representative for the Middle East
Federal Department of Foreign Affairs
Switzerland
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At the beginning of the 21st century humanity has reached a point unlike any other epoch in its history. Without a profound change we will have reached the limits of our capacities. Sustainability, climate change, over-population, destruction through war, global financial management and the depletion of our natural resources are just some of the challenges that we are facing.
Although all of these challenges may seem daunting and the pace of change may seem glacial there are solutions to all of these challenges. Our future lies in our collective actions and are well within our current capabilities but without fundamental changes in our views on our relations to the universe and to each other then the future will be bleak.
The 20th century could be defined as the century of Darwinism and epitomised by the expression of the "Survival of the fittest". This was seen as the competition of individuals where the finest specimens of our specifies passed on their attributes through the expression of their self gene. The great game is the nationalistic expression of the this and is epitomised by the win/lose mentality of international politics. But modern sociology would point to the survival of those with the highest propensity to cooperate which is innate in all mammals, in fact most human beings spend more time cooperating than fighting. However this needs to be expressed philosophically and can be done through further developing and spreading the philosophies of inter-dependence. Simply put we are all dependent on what happens around us more so than our own actions, therefore our actions should become focused on creating an environment in which we can flourish.
Peace is a pre-requisite for the survival of society as we know it in the 21st century because without peace we will never be able to create the levels of trust, co-operation and inclusivess to solve our global problems let alone empower the international institutions to create governance and policies to solve our challenges. Continuous wars raged over ever decreasing resources can only destroy our prospects of a shared prosperity but war is like a light switch it is either on or off and peace is much more. It runs on a graduated scale from mild crime to genocide. The structures to create peaceful societies are known but poorly understood. Peace is itself under funded and lacks the words for proper articulation such as the concept of conflict. Negative conflict is destructive but there is positive conflict, such as sports competitions, teachers correcting student papers or the creative friction of a good debate but there are no words in the English language to differentiate the two. New words are needed such as Posaflict for positive conflict or Negaflict for negative conflict. Vitalising peace and bringing it to the forefront of the global agenda in international politics, education and the media can create the change that is needed.
If there were one billion people on the planet then sustainability would not be an issue. Since the advent of modern contraception it is within our means to control and reduce our population. This can be achieved through peaceful means. Women naturally choose to have less children when they have opportunity and are secure in the knowledge that the children that they do have will survive. One of the keys to population reduction is global social equity and this does not necessarily mean that all citizens need the same level of wealth as western nations rather enough to feel secure.
The current economic model of the last two hundred years has been a consumption model whereby human happiness has been equated with increases in individual wealth and material possessions but longitudinal studies of happiness in the most advanced societies has shown that even as wealth has increased over the last twenty years human happiness has reached a plateau. This is now recognised and organisations such as the OECD are looking at how we can broaden our view of progress away from GDP. Wealth is generated by productivity and productivity is dependent technological innovation, not consumption. How do we create the economic models that are still capitalist in nature but based on innovation, creativity and the opportunity for full human expression. We do not need consumption to achieve these yet business will still be needed to meet our needs and to distribute the wealth of society to its citizens.
The key to a successful future lies in how we view our relationship to our world and to each other, our ability to create and live peaceful lives and the development of sustainable economic models.
Our future lies in our hands and we have the knowledge and capacity to thrive but do we have the moral compass to do this. This is the key question of our time. In the words of Mahatma Ghandi "There is enough resources for everyone on the planet but not enough for one greedy person"
Steve Killelea, Founder of Global Peace Index
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In the next fifty years major transitions are likely to be observable realities:
1. Due to the inability of Nation States to solve the most basic of challenges facing humans, The Nation State as the primary unit of governance will have given way to formal and informal aggregations of stake holders at lower levels on the one hand and to higher levels of international governance on the other.
2 In the first parts of the 50 year horizon,.Irreversible Climate Change and continued use of unsustainable concepts of economic development will have caused collapses in multiple areas of the planet, involving dislocations and resettlements of populations on a massive scale. Some regional wars are also likely to have broken out, as a result of Nations trying to secure scarce resources.
3.Toward the latter part of the 50 year horizon, revolutions in knowledge fields such as Nano-Technology and Artificial Intelligence and especially Genetics, will continue to subtract from the power, influence and control of purveyors of Faith and Belief leading toward a more private, personal, and individual concept of spirituality. A concurrent consequence will be the end of terrorism inspired and driven by Religious Fundamentalism.
4.Developments in the field of Human Genetics will usher in an era of revolutionary advances, facilitating therapies for health, behavior and intelligence at the level of the individual.
5.Human outposts in Space ( Mars and Moon) will have been established for explorations related to the exploitation of Solar Energy, Water and other resources.
Sesh Velamoor
Trustee & Director of Programs
Foundation for the Future
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Your “Big questions” are very interesting – important and intriguing in your choice!
From my side, one area that I think we need to devote some thought to concerns advances in “life sciences”, in brain mapping, in individualization of medicine, in the extent to which knowledge of each individual’s “intimate life” details are known (and shared) -- and implications.
Another, more immediate area, concerns the trade off that many emerging economies are making – progress on moving their populations out of poverty and into more than survival, traded off against openness (in fact, traded off for more authoritarian regimes). The example of China is gaining credence.
Maria Livanos Cattaui
Former Secretary General of International Chamber of Commerce
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