The impact of climate change is here to stay.
One dramatic example is that for the first time in at least
125,000 years (or the beginning of the last Ice Age), ships
can travel around the North Pole. The opening up of the North-west
and North-east passages in the Arctic region is witness to
this.
Global warming and climate change has been touted as an issue that needs global collaborative solutions. So far, the response to the ice melt from countries can hardly be labelled as collaborative. Canada’s Prime Minister has warned that all ships entering the North West passage must report to the Canadian government, a move that is bound to be resisted by other countries, especially the United States. Shipping companies are already planning the first sail around the North Pole for an oceanic voyage from Germany to Japan that would reduce the distance by around 4000 miles, but potentially pollute one of the last remaining pristine environments on earth.
But the real stakes lie far beneath the ocean floor. These
include about 22 per cent of the world’s untapped petroleum
deposits, including 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,670 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural
gas liquids. The petroleum deposits are mainly offshore and
are spread across 25 geological provinces in the Arctic,
with over 50 per cent of the untapped oil and 70 per cent
of the untapped natural gas deposits in just six geological
provinces. The race to capture these fields in definitely
on.
Another aspect to keep in mind is that there are currently
no techniques available that would allow oil spills to be
cleaned up in icy waters. Therefore it would be important
to designate no-go zones for both shipping and oil exploration
to prevent damage to the unique Arctic environment. New battle
lines are expected to be drawn and unlikely partnerships
are likely to form in the near future over a piece of land
that no country was particularly interested in, when it was
covered over by ice for centuries on end.
In 2002, Russia planted its flag on the Arctic Seabed. In
July 2008, it sent war ships to patrol Arctic waters. In
August 2007, Canada announced the building of a military
base and deep water port to patrol and maintain its sovereignty
over the North West passage. China has also planted a research
ship within 200 miles of the North Pole. Danish and US
researchers have conducted month long expeditions to collect
geological data and map the sea floor in the last few years.
Russia has laid claims over the Arctic leading to a clash of claims with the US, Canada, Denmark and Norway. Canada, Denmark and Russia claim the Lononosov Ridge, as a natural extension of their continental shelves. While Canada and Denmark both agree that the ridge is not an extension of the Russian continental shelf, where their own borders begin and end are under dispute. Norway has a border dispute with Russia in the Barents Sea. The US position is unclear as they have yet to sign the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that governs the use of oceans and its resources. The melting ice and warmer waters could also lead to the potential development of new fisheries. However, so far no international fisheries conservation and management regime are in place that covers all of the Arctic sea.
With countries looking for a division of the spoils over
the resources that the Arctic holds is it likely that the
global collaboration and action that is required to prevent
further melting of the Artic ice will actually come about?
Or will the cold and frozen continent lead to a new cold
war?
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