The Future President

April, 2011
By Ilmas Futehally

In a recent interaction with Members of the European Parliament in Mumbai, one of them mentioned that the future President of the European Union must currently be in a school somewhere at this time. I imagined a little girl or boy, sitting in a classroom, daydreaming about the great things that she or he is going to do, just as all little ones dream.

So far, whenever the term �€œPresident of the European Union�€ has been used, mostly in the media, it has incorrectly referred to one of three positions-  either the President of the European Parliament or the President of the European Commission, or the Presidency of the Council of the European Union; none of which are the President of the European Union. However, the President of the European Union, or the President of Europe, will in real terms be someone much, much more powerful. And that person will seriously challenge the President of the United States of America for the position of the most powerful person in the world.

But the very fact that there is a discussion about a future President of the European Union shows the extent to which Europe has changed. After fighting each other over millennia, conquering each others lands and vast parts of the world, intense rivalry culminating in the two World Wars, six countries in Europe came together under the Coal and Steel Community in the 1950s. Today the economic and political union of 27 Member States with a population of over 500 million inhabitants is almost a miracle.

In 2005, I was fortunate to meet the late Professor Bronislaw Geremek, former Foreign Minister of Poland and a renowned European historian. He believed that that the future of Europe would be secure only if peace and stability in Europe touched the lives of young Europeans. We have made Europe, he declared, now we have to make Europeans! This process is obviously much more difficult than it sounds, but it is well underway, in  a large part due to the mindset of the Europeans..

An interesting anecdote that illustrates how political leaders of the European Union think took place a few years ago. Graham Watson, the former leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe in the European Parliament (ALDE) had just finished his term. He was a candidate for the Presidency of the European Parliament (another position that has been mistaken for the President of the European Union!). His campaign was underway when he came to know that Jerzy Buzek- the former Polish Prime Minister, and Member of the European Parliament elected with a record number of votes- was planning to put up his candidature for the same post. Graham Watson immediately withdrew from the race and decided to put ALDE votes behind Jerzy Buzek, despite the fact that he was from another party. Graham Watson�€™s argument was that this was a great opportunity for the European Parliament to have a President of the calibre of Mr Buzek and that it gave the right message to the world that the European Parliament was lead by a political leader from Poland.

However, despite changing mindsets and growing bonds in Europe, the President of the EU would have to deal with many tough challenges. The greatest of which will be demographic aging- which refers to the proportion of older people among the population. Putting together a number of emerging trends in the EU it is estimated that the working population will fall by almost 45 million by 2050, doubling the current dependency ratio to nearly 50%. Directly linked to this issue is how the issue of enlargement will be dealt with.

The last two rounds of enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 brought in twelve new countries based on the framework of Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union and the Copenhagen criteria. In the future, the President and people of the EU along with the people of the EU will have to decide upon the geographical, political, and most importantly, cultural boundaries of the Union. This is not going to be an easy task. However, if countries that are currently facing a youth bulge are brought in, they would help in mitigating the baby crash and demographic aging. But the long drawn out negotiation process that Turkey is undergoing to join the EU shows that this is not as easy as it may seem.

Another way to deal with the problems of an aging population is by using technology and the aids that it provides. Japan has focused on developing robots to help deal with its aging problem, and it is estimated that in the next decade or two the Japanese government is expecting robots to form 15% of the country�€™s labour force. Currently, robots are trained to assist people in carrying objects, doing the laundry, helping the elderly to walk and in other essential day to day activities. In this way, Japan hopes to prevent an in-flow of immigrants that would dilute its culture and traditions. Whether the robots manage their duties in a caring manner remains to be seen.

I wonder what that little boy or little girl sitting in the class room is dreaming about. Is it about robots and spaceships that rescue the world from disaster or is it about adventures with diverse friends?

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