Strategic Foresight Group is known for its forward-looking analysis and skill in foreseeing the future – a combination of research and insight. SFG’s report, “Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia” published in March 2003, stated:
Afghanistan
Hamid Karzai will get re-elected in 2004 and will be in power till 2008. The US will support the Karzai government or any other government led by a liberal like him till 2008. US will confine its interest to Kabul and the areas where it will build military bases. Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and India will support the US policies in Afghanistan. There will be continued flow of aid, though insufficient for reconstruction. In the absence of physical and social infrastructure and investments in agriculture and mining, there will be very little productive economy. Afghanistan’s aid economy will create a small group of elite in Kabul. Its warfare and poppy economy will create trafficking in drugs, illicit arms, extortion and conflicts between warlords. The resulting discontent will have a backlash on the Kabul elite. Either anarchy or a conglomeration of radical Islamic groups will return to power, as soon as the US loses its interests in protecting a regime in Kabul.
Pakistan
The military will remain in control, while the elected government will provide a cosmetic democratic face. As the Jamali government survives on a very narrow margin, it may be replaced by another government at the discretion of the army. With GDP growth rate below 4 per cent, poverty and unemployment will grow. This will result in the continued supply of unemployed youth to the ranks of jihadi groups. The control of the jihadi forces on the Pakistani state will tighten through the patrons of militancy in the army, as well as the religious parties in the national assembly. Pakistan will continue to have the dual policy of cosmetic support to the war on terror and substantive support to the forces of terror.
Iran
If the US miscalculates its strategy in West Asia, and if its war on terror is perceived as war against Islam, and if the Ayatollahs succeed in creating a sense of insecurity about the US motives in the region, people will rally around the clerics. Iranians will still demand a liberal social order within the country, but will accept the path of slow reforms, which permits co-existence of religious and representatives’ institutions.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi politics will go through an uncertain phase due to rivalry between the two factions led by Crown Prince Abdullah and Defence Minister Prince Sultan. With growing unemployment, resulting in the popularity of radical Islam in the absence of democratic culture, conservative Abdullah has better prospects of winning the battle. Once he becomes King, he will distance himself from the United States and get Saudi Arabia closer to Iran and other Islamic countries in the region. Being pragmatic, he will not severe relations with the West, but will simply balance them by close relationship with the Islamic block. It is also possible that in view of his old age the decision makers in the royal family may decide to sidestep both him and Prince Sultan and appoint a third generation Prince as the new King. This may put an end to the battle for succession and usher stability.
SFG’s report on “The Future of Central Asia” (2004) had projected that President Akayev would relinquish office in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and the opposition would take over the state. As this was a confidential report prepared for the Directorate of Net Assessment of the Indian Ministry of Defence, it cannot be quoted verbatim. |
