What does war cost to Sri Lanka? Muhammad Yusuf examines a study that goes into the subject

Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), the Mumbai-based think tank, has become a regular fixture in the field of strategic studies.

With a small but dedicated staff and consistency of output via participation in conferences, publications and presentations, it has made a niche for itself in a city more known for the pursuit of lucre than knowledge.

SFG’s latest offering is Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka. It is a 80-page study by authors Semu Bhatt and Devika Mistry. By laying down the cost of conflict in Sri Lanka in bare facts and figures and pointing out the benefits of peace, the authors hope to influence people and their leaders in that country to step back from the brink of war.

As Sundeep Waslekar, SFG president points out in the preface, “The New Year brings with it a new challenge for Sri Lanka. It is perhaps the year that will make or break Sri Lanka’s future. It is a year that will demonstrate whether peace and reconciliation is feasible in the troubled South Asian region. It is a year that will determine whether the people of the island country in the Indian Ocean have a long term vision, or whether they find it difficult to overcome short term opportunism.”

English poet William Blake once wrote:
Tiger, tiger, burning bright
In the forest of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

The answer is: SFG’s intrepid authors! They have penetrated the lair of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), one of the parties to the war, discovered what makes it spring and roar, watched its movements through a closed-circuit camera as it were – and lived to tell the tale! (The LTTE, for those who came in very late, is a terrorist organisation which is fighting for an independent homeland (eelam) in Sri Lanka).

SFG has to be applauded for laying bare Tamil Tigers’ deepest secrets (including its weapons procurement programme and fiscal ledgers). This is the first study from the Indian sub-continent that comprehensively, systematically and substantially exposes the LTTE’s modus operandi. It is a must, must read if only for this.

The effort has not been easy. At the close of the book, the authors have quoted their sources. It includes official publications, websites, newspaper articles and the help of individuals for “intellectual input and logistical support.” Shows it takes a large village to make a strategic study.

War reporting could be glamourous. Strategic studies, on the other hand, are perhaps grimy. But their plus point is that they put situations in context, elaborate each point in detail and incorporate research material, something beyond the scope of a war report.

Once upon a time, Sri Lanka was described as a paradise of the South. In the decade right after its independence, it had a per capita income, health, education and other socio-economic indicators comparable to that of the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. However, as a result of internal conflict, these countries have outpaced Sri Lanka on all socio-economic fronts.

Today, Sri Lanka is the most militarised state in South Asia. In 2006-10, it will continue to hold this dubious position. The possibility of it becoming a less militarised nation lies only after 2011, conditional on the resolution of its internal conflict before 2006-7. As Waslekar says, “it is a great challenge for the new leaders of Sri Lanka to transform the country from the fastest militarising country in South Asia to the most caring that it once was.”

The conflict has not only weakened its commitment to development and freedom but also eroded traditional values of Sri Lankan society like ahimsa and tolerance. Says SFG: “Today, Sri Lankan society is marked by low tolerance, growth of right wing political parties, desensitisation to violence, high crime rates and draconian laws. The credibility of the government has taken a dip due to its failure to curb violence, protect minorities and deliver social goods.”

Some unofficial estimates place the total loss of life caused buy the war at over 1.8 million life years, given that the majority of people who have died in the conflict are of the age group 20-35. Almost 28 per cent of LTTE casualties are women. Within Sri Lanka, the availability of illegal firearms is becoming a big concern. Small arms leak into society from the armed forces as well as the LTTE, leading to an increase in violence and crime.

There are instances of deserters from the Sri Lankan armed forces setting up criminal gangs, especially in and around Colombo. There are also instances of acts of violence by relatives of political leaders.

Sri Lanka’s ambition of becoming a trade hub is frustrated by the conflict. It has reduced its chances of joining ASEAN. It has affected Indo-Sri Lankan co-operation which would have been very beneficial for it. In the last two decades, the loss of earnings by the tourism industry is over $6.3 billion. If peace prevails, the country can earn as much as $3.2 billion from tourism in the next five years, as against $2.3 billion in case of conflict. If conflict continues, economic growth will be 3-4 per cent between 2005-10. If there is peace, it will be 7-8 per cent in the same period.

Corruption has penetrated everywhere. According to Transparency International, law enforcement agencies – police and judiciary – are the most corrupt public sector agencies. Another sector where corruption is widely prevalent is the defence procurement sector.

SFG says that “accusations of irregularities in multimillion dollar defence deals have become common. Speculation is also rife about high corruption in relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction work in the conflict-affected areas with irregularities in procurement of goods and material, handling of aid money and distribution of livelihood assistance.”

Sri Lanka has a history of cannabis use for cultural, religious and medicinal purposes. However, it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that narcotics such as heroin and other recreational drugs made their way into mainstream society.

“One of the reasons for this,” says SFG, “was the escalation of ethnic conflict in the North and the East that witnessed active involvement of the LTTE in drug trafficking for revenue generation. The conflict also made it difficult for the armed forces to protect and control their borders effectively against drug trafficking.”

Sri Lanka has also earned the ominous recognition of being a country with the second highest number of disappearances. The LTTE is one of the first insurgent groups to use children as combatants and suicide bombers. Assessments of LTTE soldiers killed in combat during the 1990s found that between 40-60 per cent of the dead combatants were children under the age 17.

SFG notes that the peace process has brought an unexpected twist to the child soldier issue. “People are no longer willing to ‘donate’ their children to the LTTE. This has resulted in the increased abduction of children by the LTTE. As per the Human Rights Report 2004, in 1994 one in 19 child recruits was abducted, while the rest volunteered. In 2004, only one in 19 volunteered, as due to the ceasefire, people saw no reason to donate their children to the LTTE.”

There are large numbers of children who have lost one or both parents. In the eastern district of Batticaloa, 53 per cent of children have had a direct family member die or disappear. As of today, more than 10,000 children live in orphanages.

Women of the North and East are another group that have immensely suffered as a result of the conflict. They constitute a large chunk of the Internally Displaced Persons in Sri Lanka and have been subject to rape, detainment, harassment and violation of their personal security.

As the outcome of the conflict, women have been rendered the breadwinners of their families, as their husbands, fathers, sons or brothers were either killed or injured. There are an estimated 47,500 war widows in Sri Lanka, more than 50 per cent of who belong to Jaffna.

At present there are an estimated 30,000 female-headed families in the North and the East. The number of widows looking after a household with three dependents or more is 13,000. The conflict has raised the proportion of female-headed households, not only in the Northeast, but also in many of the poorer rural areas and low-income communities of the South from where recruitment into the armed forces is sought.

The SFG study shows in a dramatic way the larger costs of violence. Conflict has led to the segregation and displacement of people, lower development, emigration, collapse of infrastructure, reduced investment and growth, value erosion, loss of earnings, high restorative costs, political polarisation, violence and assassinations, religious and sectarian violence, arming of society, crime, corruption, diffusion of drug culture, lessening of civil liberties, suppression of media, child soldiers, uneducated children, orphans, war widows, destruction of homes, hospitals, water and sanitation systems and environment (more than 1,500 elephants dead) and ruined agriculture.

SFG also gives a gruesome list of LTTE-sponsored assassinations. The pages look like a Wall of Remembrance, with the names of victims listed from 1975-2005. Here, in black and white, is also detailed the economic imbalances which was one of the reasons for the Tamil uprising. Western Province, where Sinhalese live, has the bulk of goodies. Northern and Eastern Provinces lag badly behind.

“The LTTE has an authoritarian structure. It largely ignores people’s complaints or wishes,” says SFG. It penetrates into the fiscal ledgers of the highly secretive LTTE. If what makes the LTTE war machine click – and clack – is a secret, its financial resources are a secret within a secret.

The LTTE’s annual expenditure on its 10,000 cadre amounts to $8million, according to SFG. LTTE also sustains a major spy network, mainly in the Northeast to get information on various developments in the region. It offers handsome money to trade information. The actual size of the network is not known, as many people double as informers for want of money. However, total expenditure on cadres and informers is insignificant compared to the LTTE’s annual income of $200-300 million.

The graphics, which give the SFG study so much of its power, are appropriately sensational. Towards the end, however, it seems to lose it grip on the narrative. It results in titles like Struggling on the Earth, Hell Let Loose and Paradise Regained. They wouldn’t have been out-of-place in John Milton’s poetry. But look odd in a strategic study.

Tiger's Milk Breakdown of LTTE Annual Income Drug trafficking, smuggling of contraband goods and arms trafficking = $100-250 million Direct Contributions from Tamil Expatriate Community = $40-50 million Profits from Businesses = $35-50 million Human Smuggling and Funds Siphoned from NGOs = $3-5 million Local Taxation and Extortion = $30 million

 

Warning Bells In a future scenario of war, a targeted attack on critical national infrastructure such as the Victoria Dam on the River Mahaweli, the Colombo Port or even the garment production centres is a realistic possibility. Destruction of almost 50 per cent of the country’s electricity supply as the Mahaweli project is one of the region’s largest hydroelectric projects Disastrous impact on the national rice production in the country as the Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka governs the major irrigation systems, which irrigates 17 per cent of national rice producing land Acute electricity shortage for the commercial capital of Colombo, as the Victoria and Kotmale hydro plants supply electricity to the western provinces Unemployment of up to a third of the total employed personnel in the manufacturing sector Serious decline in foreign exchange earnings as apparel exports account for over half of Sri Lanka’s total exports and over 70 per cent of total industrial exports Decline in total GDP on account of garment exports accounting for seven per cent of total GDP