India is often described as the largest democracy in the world. A label widely honoured last April and May, as the 58 per cent of the 714 India’s eligible voters went to the polls in largely peacefully and internationally praised parliamentary elections. Exceeding even the best previsions, the incumbent Congress Party (‘the Congress’) won a remarkable victory at the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, taking over 206 of its 543 seats.
In a country as vast as linguistically, ethnically and religiously diverse as is India, transparent, free and fair elections would have signed a significant achievement by its own right. Instead, India has reached further beyond. Although faced with overwhelming challenges as ingrained poverty, widespread corruption, volatile religious tensions and bloody internal uprisings, Indians have elegantly manifested a surprising political sophistication.
The following article breaks down the importance of last Indian elections’ result by scrutinising the poll’s backdrop. Issues like the shameful failure of literally all voting predictions; the key components of the Congress’ success; the dire prospects of the defeated major political forces; as well as the challenges down the road for the ruling coalition articulate this in-depth but affordable outlook on the so called ‘largest democratic election in history’.
Flawed reckons
When last April 16th the four-phased India’s poll kicked off, both the local and international media, concerned academic spheres, worldwide think tanks neither the Congress more reckless optimistic speech dared to anticipate what exactly a month later the Indian Electoral Commission commenced to insinuate- the Congress wide victory in the country 15th parliamentarian elections.
Over the electoral campaign and voting period, there was the vastly shared assumption that poor Indians (who constitute the bulk of India’s electorate), voting along regional, religious and cast lines, would come up with a lethally divided regime. As the reputable Indian Strategic Foresight Institute puts it, “in India, people are known to vote with emotion rather than rationale (1).”
In a country as diverse as in most of the cases, poorly educated as is India, expectations in a spontaneous coherence on casting the people’s vote were anything but inconceivable. It was in any case true over the last two parliamentarian elections when regional parties were given a prominent role in the Lok Sabha.
Even exit surveys “indicated a neck-and-neck affair between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (2)”. In the end, the poll’s verdict was to open a promising new era in the way Indians look and understand themselves.
Last month, the incumbent Congress’ wildest dreams came true; by surpassing the boundary of 200 seats, the Congress was given the chance to form a strong government of coalition along with a few regional political parties. The Congress’s uncontested triumph abruptly silenced the fear of another fragmented coalition built on an endless number of regional parties with divergent interests and confronting ideologies. The impression of being at the edge of collapse each time that a comprehensive piece of legislation was discussed melted away thanks to the voters’ solid mandate.
Events like the Congress-led ruling UPA tense disagreement with a group of Leftist parties (called the Left Front) on a crucial nuclear deal signed with the US are today set to be less likely. The new ruling coalition looks firmly assembled. Two major regional parties (together with a number of small political forces) under the Congress’ strong leadership cope 262 seats- a comfortable majority to confidently take the reins of the country.
Sources of success
For Mr Varshney, a professor of political science at the American Brown University, such a massive people’s back to the Congress “points to a great reward for the social welfare policies of the UPA (3)”. Among these, two successful programmes have won the hearts and minds of millions of Indians. In the first place, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, a colossal undertaking that assures 100 days of annual employment (in unskilled-related public-works) for at least one adult of any rural household and from which Delhi believes 44 million families have already profited. On the second hand, another massive social initiative wrote off farming-related debts to roughly 43 million of rural dwellers. In the last few years, these debts have pushed thousands of farmers to take their lives out of desperation.
Such pro-poor policies drew the definitive support of wide sections of the India’s lower socio-economic groups and marginalised cast strata. Though within ups and downs, these vast segments of the Indian population have traditionally constituted a committed vast block of voters. Given the fact that, against the Western electoral logic, “the lower, the caste, income, and education of an Indian, the greater the odds that he will vote,” 13 and bearing in mind that roughly the 70 per cent of Indians live on less that $2 a day, it can be affirmed that the destitute and impoverished Indian masses have been the truly king makers of these Indian elections.
Any analysis of the healthy vote of confidence given to the Congress would be unsatisfactory without looking at the backing to the UPA’s performance by sizeable sections of more fortunate Indian classes.
The middle and upper echelons, expected to champion the perceived more business-friendly BJP, seems to have favoured the relative economic stability unfolded over the past five years by the UPA economic management.
An average annual growth of 8.5 per cent over the past years and a sharp drop on inflation (the index that Indians best understand) following the declining price of oil prices, have generated a sense of confidence on the governments’ performance. Given this record, urban Indians have turned to the safe card of incumbency in this period of financial decline. As M K Bhadrakumar, retired Indian ambassador, writes in the Asian Times, “Congress has benefited from uncertain times (4).”
Another crucial factor behind the nation’s approval of the Congress’ tenure was the government seasoned response to last November terrorist attack in Mumbai. Even if accused of being too soft on the early stages of the crisis, overall Delhi managed to appear tough enough in its public declarations but skilful to not overreact in the diplomatic sphere. Furthermore, it healed the remaining public disaffection by dismissing the country home minister and the chief minister of Maharashtra (state from which Mumbai is capital).
By avoiding to fuel a state of soaring animosity towards Pakistan (and by extend the country’s Muslim community), the Congress became the natural choice for most of Indian’s 150-odd million Muslims.
Last but not least, the very Indian Prime Minister, Mr Manmohan Singh, has certainly been decisive to his party sweeping victory. As most political systems in developing countries, the Indian is packed of corrupt figures guiding the fate of the country billion-strong inhabitants. In an article wrote for the Indian think thank South Asia Analysis Group, Mr Raman, Director of the Indian Institute For Topical Studies, asserts that the “unquestioned reputation as an honest leader has helped the Congress in getting over… allegations of corruption surrounding the party (5).”
The old principles’ failure- lessons from a more experienced India
One of the foremost losers of last April-May elections was the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party, which ruled Indian since 1998 to 2004, has apparently fallen prey of its own ideology: Hindutva (Hindu-ness). This term embodies a nationalist set of conservative precepts driven by a strict interpretation of how Hinduism must feature at the centre of India’s governing and administrative structures. Such a reading of Hinduism, the religion-philosophy devotedly practiced by roughly 80 per cent of Indians, has proved to be out of touch with today’s India. For instance in Gujarat, the country most industrialised state and the region in which the Hindu-Muslim divide is more volatile, Congress obtained 11 of 26 seats (the remaining 16 were left in BJP hands). In spite of the fact that the BJP has governed Gujarat since 1995 and just two years ago, Narendra Modi, its harsh chief minister, won his third consecutive mandate; gujaraties have shown a weaker backing to their local government in the national poll. BJP’s leader must be still scratching their heads trying to come to terms with the state’s waking up call.
Along most India’s twenty eight states, similar voting patters have placed the country trust in the BJP at its lowest rate in two decades- just 116 MPs in the Lok Sabha.
If the party aims at recovering the mainstream appeal once enjoyed, the BJP will need both to keep pace with the moral growth of young urban Indians and better listen the bread and butter needs of India rural masses. That should be put in motion by, as literally all observers point out, relieving the party’s head, Mr Advani, an octogenarian and former minister that has overtly demonstrated to uphold an obsolete portrait of India.
The staggering success of India’s political centre (personified by the Congress) has not come at the expense of the right-wind BJP alone. It has also severely undermined the country’s main left forces as well as a number of major regional parties in a similar degree.
The Communist Party of India -Marxists, CPI (M), the country’s main leftist political force, governs West Bengal, Kerala and the tiny northeast state of Tripura in coalition. This relative strength enabled the CPI (M) to play a vital role in the last government by supporting the UPA government from within the Left Front (an alliance of Indian leftist parties), UPA’s parliamentarian partner.
The CPI (M) suffered a severe setback at the last polls, which only entrusted 22 seats to the party, far off from the 43 MPs obtained in the 2004 elections, its best result ever.
The CPI (M)’s collapse must be understood in the framework of two policies that, given the electorate’s painful reaction, have proved (in the same fashion that the aforementioned BJP’s Hindutva mindset) to be far behind Indians claims. In its 80-million stronghold of West Bengal, the CPI (M) has been heavily criticised for, as the Economist, a global opinion-setter publication, puts it “thuggish efforts to acquire farmland for industrial development (6)”. In 2007 the ruling CPI (M) was accused of forcing poor farmers to give land away for the development of a petrochemical complex in exchange of a clearly unjust compensation.
The other controversial issue was the CPI (M)’s furious opposition to the most significant Congress’ move in foreign policy over the last legislature. Mr Sign’s deal with the Bush administration on a nuclear co-operation agreement eventually provoked its last year’s withdrawal from the Left Front support to the UPA government.
The nitty-gritty of a coalition’s wand
Given the confident people’s backup gained by the UPA, it just needed 10 further seats to form a ruling majority. It has enabled the emergency of a remarkably stable government that does not have to rely on the support of a large number of regional parties beyond the UPA’ sphere.
Amongst the most noticeable absences in the new UPA-led government is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which rules the northern Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. Given that Uttar Pradesh holds 80 seats at the Lok Sabha, the BSP, thought to be extremely popular amongst the 190 million Uttar Pradeshis, was set to be given a large number of seats and therefore, play an essential role on the new parliament’s configuration. Following this reasoning, Ms Mayawati, the populist dalit chief of the state, was unanimously regarded as a potential ‘kingmaker’ by the Indian media. The reality differed enormously. With a surprisingly-low 21 seats mandate, the BSP is all out of the governing landscape.
In the opposite extreme of the performers’ spectrum, there is the Trinamool Congress. This Congress breakaway party has unforeseeably come up as West Bengal’s largest party in the Lok Sabha. A Congress like-minded ally, it is now the second strongest UPA’s party member with 19 seats - far behind the Congress’ 206 though.
Any picture of the new UPA’s outlook would be flawed without an overview on its third strongest member, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). This party, that rules the southeast state of Tamil Nadul, is since the UPA’s formation in 2004 a key ally of the Congress.
Tamil Nadu is a particularly sensitive state, given the fact that it is mostly populated by ethnic Tamils. The state, just offshore Sri Lanka, is obviously very susceptible to Delhi’s position on the island ethnic antagonism.
Given that the last stage of the war coincided with India’s elections, the DMK exerted a heavy pressure on the UPA to take a strong stand against the reportedly abuses committed against Tamil civilians in the conflict. The Congress brightly handled the situation to adopt a firm-enough position towards the Sri Lankan government on the issue and therefore, kept the DMK within the UPA’s files.
At home, the DMK’s approach at the Sri Lankan events seemed to have satisfied India Tamils. The party won 18 seats at the Lok Sabha, endowing it with the third position in the reshuffled UPA’s.
In short, Mr Singh may see what lies ahead with a certain sense of relief. With its external troublemaker-former allies deprived of exerting any influence, he must be capable to better fulfil his electoral promises and steadily deliver pledged economic reforms to a much greater extend than his previous government did. Whether formerly employed, the argument of political interference has already run out.
The only inherent obstacle in the Congress way may be posed by its major ally, the Trinamool Congress. As Mr Raman pinpoints, the Western Bengal party has “its own retrograde baggage in economic matters… such as its unrelenting opposition to special economic zones (7)”. In fact, how the Trinamool Congress will manoeuvre at the ruling UPA is the observers’ single main concern in predicting the functioning strength of the new government.
Being pretentious, asking the essential
Soon after Mr Sign electoral conquest took place, the re-elected primer minister stated that one of his chief aims is inclusive growth. If anything, Mr Sign is credited for his seasoned and competent economic judgement. Reputation earned in the early 90s as a finance minister, when he introduced an extensive economic reform programme based on privatising key state-own enterprises and relaxing the investing regulatory environment.
Given such a background and freed of the communist’ blockage on the selling of public companies, the new government is likely to step up its privatisation strategy. It remains to be seen how this policy will impact on the notable industrial closures and increasing lay-offs today depriving hundreds of thousands of income.
Along with the precarious labour and pension laws, India’s dire fiscal balance is probably its weakest economic pillar. The critical state of the country’s coffers is mainly originated in what some called “wasteful government expenditure (8)”. A legacy of India’s communist-like economic planning implemented from mid-50s to early 90s, Delhi heavily subsidises a wide range of the country’s economic machinery; distribution systems, primary education, basic health and fertilizers are amongst the benefited sectors. This fat monetary flowing out has left the central government in a worrying fiscal footing not foreseen to get better any time soon due to the global recession. “Fuel subsidies, in particular, hold the public finances hostage to the world oil price (9)”. Luckily enough, the economic crunch has not coincided with last year’s peak in fuel prices, what gives a slight break on the government’s finances- at this critical period, Delhi is reportedly opposed to cut down this price support.
Therefore, the Congress’ foremost economic dilemma is to progressively reduce the number and value of the aforementioned subsidies and in the meantime, cause the minimum impact in the earnings of troubled peasants.
It is India’s decrepit bureaucratic system the area in which Mr Singh’s gathered more criticisms and the pitfall that partially explains Delhi’s frustrations in moving its agenda ahead. The task of revamping India’s massive public administrative sector is far beyond the capabilities of any five-year term ruling government. It can only be fulfilled through the unified commitment of the country’s successive executives, what in a hugely diversified landscape like the Indian, looks reasonably unlikely.
A genuine cause of the, as the Economist characterises it, “India’s creaking bureaucratic machinery (10)” is the endemic and widespread corruption of the system.
The questionable habit of using one’s state-granted privileges to self-profit also reaches the policy-making class. Over 70 of the Lok Sabha candidates had criminal records in what Swati Parashar, from South Asia Analysis Group, describes as “criminals turned politicians (11).”
On the national security front, the virulent Maoist insurgency -unfolded throughout India’s Southeast- constitutes the deadliest threat to the country’s social stability. The Maoists, a loose grouping of extreme left-win guerrilla fighters, claim to protect the rights of the poorest rural dwellers. More specifically, the Maoists claim to defend the interests of hundreds of thousands of people displaced in the name of development projects.
In so doing, the rebels restore to the most ruthless cruelty to impose their own rule in the areas under their influence. Consequently, the Maoist guerrilla boycotted the elections, menacing residents to cut their hands off if they dare to cast the ballot and kill the personnel engaged in the poll’s organisation (12). As a result, the Maoist ended up assassinating some 50 members of the security forces during the polls.
To tackle this civil-war like anarchy, the recently elected government must put emphasis on improving the coordination amongst India’s states in the fight against Maoist. The existing mistrust with which certain states see Delhi’s guidelines in combating this bloody uprising must be skilfully eroded. Two years ago, your author witnessed how the BJP’s government of the central Indian state of Chattisgarh was arming civilians to confront the Maoist fighters. As a first step, this type of doubtful anti-terrorism strategies should be corrected by the central government if it is to restore the rule of law in the vast areas where the Maoist apparatus operates.
The remaining three main challenges to Indians’ security are shaped by the Kashmir issue, the numerous breakaway movements in the country’s northeast states and, more importantly for the country’s psyche, its relationship with Pakistan.
Needless to say, the Mumbai attacks stirred up a somehow dormant hostile mood against its neighbour. It is on Delhi’s shoulders to calm down this easily inflammable popular temper once and for all. Thus, the Indian government must favour a cohesive approach towards Islamabad in pursuing a final solution to the tensions polluting both countries. As Firdaus Ahmed, a freelancer for the Indian Institute for Peace a Conflict Studies, argues, “India needs to institutionalise a strategic dialogue with Pakistan discussing approaches to concerns as Afghanistan, Kashmir, pipelines from Central Asia and Iran, mutual reining in of intelligence agencies and conventional and strategic restraint (13).”
A quite and thoughtful social revolution
Keeping this paper optimistic overtone, one may feel tempted to assert that what has happen in India over last months has been a quite and thoughtful social revolution. In an extraordinary display of lucidity, ordinary India has put aside most of its religious, cast and communal biases. As a result, the last decade’s rise of regional and caste-based political forces has been suddenly halted. ‘A tested a cohesive national government will be more likely to deliver’ may have been the thought.
As a result, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has the tricky responsibility to live up to the high expectations- undertaking prone to be unaccomplished in one or another degree. It implies a considerable risk plainly highlighted by Ms Parashar when she warns that “we must be careful before making tall claims about how ‘secularism’ has won or that communalism is out forever (14)”.
Democracy has spoken, and has done so confidently. It is not to say that the democratic gears are going to gather dust till the next polls- quite the contrary. The Congress-led UPA’s performance must be closely monitored by the other actors at the Lok Sabha.
In order that this crucial opposition role is constructively played, the under-performers must rethink themselves. The driving question must be what has distanced these parties from their natural voters. As this paper has argued, these political forces have failed to evolve as the Indian society seems to have done. Hopefully, it will amount to less radicalism and more inclusive lines at India’s political arenas.
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