A few years ago, a friend forwarded me an email which provided a macro and micro view of the universe. I am sure many people around the world have seen this power point presentation. It begins with a small plant a meter away from you. As you travel as far as 10^16 meters away, you see the universe from the distance of one light year. Here the sun looks like a small dot, lost among myriad stars in the sky. The earth is completely invisible. It is a beautiful sight full of dots in our galaxy. You then come back to the plant and enter a leaf on it. As you travel a distance of 10^-16 meters into the leaf, you are inside the nucleus of an atom within a cell of the leaf. It is a beautiful sight which is full of dots in the vast universe of the atom.
In the last ten years, for the first time in the 10,000-year history of human civilization, humanity has demonstrated its ability to exploit both the inter-stellar space and the complex structure inside the atom. Voyager spacecrafts, which were launched in 1977, long before the PC and mobile phone arrived, with an objective to observe Jupiter and Saturn, are now 15-17 billion kilometres away from the earth, deep into inter-stellar space. They continue to be controlled remotely from the earth and regularly send data and pictures. More interestingly, once they completed their original mission of exploring our solar system, they were powered by remote control from here to travel farther away. Inspired by their success, a new mission has been launched to visit Pluto. We are at the beginning of the beginning. In the 21st century, the solar system will not be the limit of human endeavour. What results these inter-stellar missions will produce remains to be seen. However, there is no doubt that a new window to the universe is opening up.
At the same time, humanity is moving fast to manipulate cells and molecules in genomics-the sphere of the living, and molecular manufacturing- the sphere of the non-living. Nano-technology will soon make it possible to produce delivery systems for medicines that can enter specific cells for targeted cures. It will make it possible to produce low-cost high quality material by reorganising molecules. However, in the next several decades, nano-technology may be overtaken by something on an even smaller scale that is capable of entering into an atom, and not just cells and molecules.
In the interim period, there are possibilities that will change our daily life in the next two-three decades. Precision irrigation that monitors water consumed by each plant in a large field, nano-conductors that can carry large voltage of electricity without getting hot, new material for solar panels that may require much smaller space than the miles that we need today to service large population centres, genetic modification to eliminate some of the diseases are some of the most talked about possibilities. A new form of Internet, known as the Grid and 10,000 times faster than the current speed of the fastest Internet today, as well as a stratospheric aeroplane that will make geography irrelevant are on the anvil.
With new inventions come new risks as well. Scientists talk about nanobots and artificial germs and viruses spreading across the planet and ending all life forms in a short period of time. Sir Martin Rees and Nick Bostrom have provided many detailed scenarios which threaten humanity. Their writings are easily available on World Wide Web; so I will not repeat them.
Research in new technologies is concentrated in the United States, parts of Europe, Israel, Japan and China and to some extent in Russia. A few other countries including South Korea, India, Brazil, Singapore and South Africa have their eyes open and had success in specific sectors – India in space technology, Brazil in alternative fuels and Korea in nano-technology. However, both beneficial and destructive results of new technologies will be experienced by people across the world. If nano-technology brings down costs of some of the essential medicines and materials, while increasing effectiveness, it will benefit the poor in Africa and Asia even though research effort might be concentrated in the United States and Japan. Similarly, if by accident or intent some nanobots occupy the earth’s atmosphere, they will kill millions of people irrespective of their state of development.
It’s not just a few countries but more significantly, a few companies in each sector that will dominate certain technologies. Presently, a small number of companies monopolise the production of desalination plants, vaccines, and other essential products. Even a smaller number of companies will control the supply of low-cost equipment to map the genome codes of an average patient or equipment to produce a nano-scope. Thus, the balance of prospects between opportunities and risks will depend on the wisdom and values of a few individuals and groups. The balance shall weigh in favour of risks if some of the technologies can be replicated at low cost in secrecy by those outside the control of the states. It would be equally erroneous to assume that the main risks stem from the non-state sphere. The empirical evidence proves that the biggest calamities have been inflicted by the states, whether it was the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or ethnic and racial cleansing, or simple conventional wars.
Whether another industrial revolution introduces technology-enabled fair and prosperous global society or whether it leads to the elimination of millions or billions or all people on the planet is the biggest question of this century. The answer to this question depends on whether the brilliance of human mind that can connect to inter-stellar space and the quark of an atom will be effectively governed by wisdom and values.
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