Pakistan – A turbulent future

- By Joyanto Mukherjee

August, 2009

For the last few months, Pakistan has witnessed a series of problems, both internally and externally. These events, starting from the refusal to reinstate the judges to the eventual successful long march; the Army offensive and the corresponding IDP problems and then the Musharraf verdict, will now start taking a serious tone as the country braces itself for its most turbulent period in recent times. The next six to eight months for Pakistan will actually determine in which direction the country will head. It will also determine the future of individual important players in a country where the theory of probability actually goes for a toss.

When one looks at the success of the Long March which occurred earlier in 2009, the clear winners were Nawaz Sharif, the Judiciary and PM Gillani, in descending order. More than his theatrics before and after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif played his best card when he called for a long march. For a leader who wanted to rise on the ladder of popularity and power at the same time, the long march call actually will go on to benefit Sharif for quite some time. The march managed to project him as a leader of the masses and hence also solidify his popularity. The sheer strength of following generated by him convinced Washington too that this person cannot be ignored. Hence international visits by him and to him are given due importance. Sharif, though openly supports the government from outside, has actually positioned himself as a whip which will try and correct the government at every step possible. This tactic of his will be used in a better manner when he manages to get himself re-elected in the upcoming by-election and that will prompt him to cross swords on all major issues. The past month has seen the PPP-led coalition come under a lot of flak because of the energy crisis, inflation and other issues. Sharif is too smart to let such opportunities go unused. His relationship with the judiciary has already strengthened thanks to the long march, and his support to the views of PM Gillani is not a pleasant view for President Zardari.

If the rise of Sharif was the cause for concern for President Zardari, a powerful judiciary may actually turn out to be his Achilles heel. The judiciary has already played its Big Brother tactics by passing people friendly verdicts which include abolishing the hike in petrol prices. People have already started turning to the Judiciary for justice and will hence support everything which the judiciary envisions and advices. At such a time, any political party which has the judiciary’s ‘Respect’ will automatically be close to the people. The PML-N fits that section pretty comfortably. But the Musharraf verdict has actually opened up a whole new Pandora’s Box.

With the Supreme Court now holding the previous regime’s actions invalid, the demand for holding a trial on former President Pervez Musharraf is strong. Though such a move is not supported by the ruling PPP, it has played a safe move by saying that it will only act if the parliament passes a majority on the decision. The PML-N has decided to push for his trial. Though no one can predict whether this trial will happen or not, but one can be sure that the people of Pakistan have not seen the last of Musharraf. Pervez Musharraf knows that the current government will not push for a trial against him because the abolition of the NRO will spell trouble for Zardari too. There is also a possibility that he could still generate sympathy and respect amongst his cadres in the army. With the PML-Q also splitting up, there is a firm chance that one of the two factions may well invite Musharraf back as a party leader, with the other faction most likely to merge with the PML-N. Even though Musharraf is the ultimate scalp for Sharif, his return to active politics (which will be valid from October) may play into Sharif’s hands to pressurize Zardari. One has to remember that Sharif has his eyes set on becoming the Prime Minister again, with all powers concentrated in him and the parliament. That means the NRO will have to be abolished and this may well take shape come his re-election.

The Army offensive, a decision which was welcome by the International community but not internally, is in reality a double edged sword for the government. On one hand it has managed to attract necessary funds from abroad to stabilize a shaky economy and also bolster its defense. On the other hand, an already prolonged offensive may well push public opinion into the red for the current regime. Not a popular decision to start with, the death of Baitullah Mehsood came at a time when the government was looking for a prized scalp to show off. Baitullah’s death may have bought the regime some breathing space, but the story is not over yet. The Taliban have not been defeated nor destroyed and the chances of them resurfacing after a year are high. The offensive on Waziristan may well run beyond the winter and this will only add fuel to the fire raging amongst the impatient IDPs. The government has its job cut out as re-settling the IDPs and kick starting their lives is a huge task. The Army is tired and no sense of clear direction may cause problems for its morale. The government went for the offensive to regain its popularity, but may well be forced to call it off mid-way as its only saving grace. It won’t be surprising to see the army leave Waziristan mid-way, for different reasons. This move will not only attract negative publicity at the international level, but also internally the regime will not be allowed to use it favorably.

Whatever one may say, it is very hard to predict the future for a country like Pakistan. But the events explained above will act as a catalyst which will give rise to a set of new problems for the current regime. The actions of Sharif, Musharraf, the Judiciary and the Army will determine the direction in which Pakistan will move. Having said that, President Zardari is not a man who will give easily and he may well be forced to act as a dictator himself. The next 6-8 months will determine how long the ever popular smile on President Zardari will last.