The panel session was moderated by Christopher Dickey, Bureau Chief-Paris and Regional Editor-Middle East, Newsweek, France. He introduced the project and highlighted the main conclusion of the report by Strategic Foresight Group – Conflict in the Middle East has cost the region $12 trillion in the last 20 years. He emphasized that the report does not focus only on the Israel-Palestine conflict; it measures the costs of conflict in Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and the region as well.
Dr. Ephraim Sneh, founder and Chairman, Israel Hazaka, Israel was one of the regional experts involved in the preparation of the report. He explained the idea behind this study and the process that led to it.
He said that over the years, the costs of conflict, both direct and indirect, have been stunning. The region has suffered massive destruction as a result of terror, Israel in particular has faced a dramatic decrease in tourism, the Palestinian economy has been severely damaged as a result of the occupation and several countries have incurred heavy military and defence expenditures.
The main idea of the report was to illustrate the loss of a better alternative. There is an insurmountable gap between what the region could achieve and where the region currently stands as a result of the conflict. This missed opportunity totals to $12 trillion in 20 years.
Abdul-Malik Al Jaber, Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Paltel Group, Palestinian Territories, stated that the Palestinian private sector is no doubt paying severely when it comes to the conflict. Paltel is the only operator in the world with its equipment in one continent and its customers in another. Every phone call made from the occupied Palestinian Territories (oPT) has to be routed all the way to London and back because Israel does not allow Paltel equipment to be brought into the oPT for security purposes. This, he stated, is a direct cost of the conflict to the Palestinian private sector.
He also put forth the idea that a prosperous Palestinian state is beneficial to Israel. Practical measures are required on the ground that would enable Palestinians to start building their own economy. “We don’t want to be dependent on others,” said Al Jaber, “We want our own sustainable economy.”
Dan Gillerman, Chairman and CEO, Gillerman Global, Israel supported the reports inference that the cost of conflict transcends Israel-Palestine, it transcends the region and ultimately, it transcends international borders as well. As a result, the international community needs to realize that the establishment of a Palestinian State is not a charitable act but it links directly to international interests. He emphasized the impact of the conflict on the potential for the future - “We are not just calculating the costs of the past but we are calculating the prospects of the future.”
Mr. Gillerman also touched upon the psycho-social effects of conflict, stated in the report. “We have lost an entire eschelon of leaders. Conflict has poisoned the minds of Israeli as well as Palestinian children towards each other and erased the ambition to hope for a better future. This is the horrible price we pay.” He stated that conflict has impacted and will impact our psychology, mentality and ability to trust.
Karen Koning AbuZayd, Commissioner-General, United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA), Amman was in agreement with SFG’s findings that one of the greatest costs incurred by international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) has been their loss of credibility – a direct result of limitations imposed due to on-going conflicts. As an example she stated the current restrictions placed on the transfer of materials into Gaza. Only the most basic supplies of food and medicines are allowed into Gaza after Operation Caste Lead -no other materials are available to rebuild and reconstruct the damage and this has directly affected UNRWA’s credibility and capability in the eyes of those who have suffered.
Ms. AbuZayd also pointed out that a study needs to be conducted on the people and communities benefiting from the conflict and the occupation.
Saeb Erekat, Head, Negotiations Department, PLO, Palestinian National Authority, Palestinian Territories, highlighted some of the important costs stated in the report. The Palestinian economy is down by 30% since 2000, 75% of Palestinians live under the poverty line, 19% of people in the West Bank and 33% of people in Gaza are unemployed, 80% of Gaza families live of international aid and lastly 98% of industries in Gaza have shut down due to conflict. The daily cost of closures, both internal and external, to Palestinians is $7 million.
But in his opinion, the real cost is not numbers but it is the way that people think. According to Mr. Erekat, people in Palestine think that civilized peace negotiation efforts have failed – “that it’s not going to work”, and this is the real cost of conflict. “Desperation will lead to desperate acts,” he stated. He assured the audience that the only answer or solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is a two-state solution and that we cannot deliver this until we learn from our mistakes.
Lastly, Dr. Ephraim Sneh moved on to discuss an ensuing question that directly relates to the report. “Now that we know what the cost of conflict is,’ he stated “what is the cost of the solution?” Dr. Sneh went on to assert that the two main obstacles to Israel-Palestine peace were settlements and refugees. He proposed, that in order to work towards a solution, two separate funds need to be established - one, to help relocate Israeli settlers currently in the West Bank and another, to change the social and economic plight of Palestinian refugees. Funds need to be directed towards job creation, housing and education. “By doing so we can remove the two basic obstacles to peace…and this price is negligible compared to the cost of conflict.”
Dr. Sneh clarified however, that he does not believe in economic peace as a substitute for a political solution. Economic peace alone cannot bring about an absence of conflict as was clear during the outbreak of the First Intifada, where the quality of life was better in the West Bank than it is today. The solution lies in facts that we are all familiar with: the establishment of two states between Israel and Palestine, boundaries roughly resembling those drawn in 1967, the creation of two capitals in Jerusalem and the removal of all obstacles for a sustainable Palestinian economy. He also stated that the role of the President of the United States will be extremely crucial for the future of a Middle East Peace Plan.
|
