Southern Stalemate �€“ Time to Change

September, 2009
By Joyanto Mukherjee

When Barack Obama was elected the 43rd President of the United States, there were many who started scripting the start of a new era; an era which would offer a lot of diplomacy, dialogue and discussion. He was seen as the man who would undo a lot of the actions made by the Bush Administration and would again start making friends across the globe. This included a vast majority sitting in the continent south of the United States as even they were looking forward to the start of better ties with their northern brother. It�€™s almost a year now since that historic election, but little has changed.

Historically, South America has been always treated by the US as its own. The US has always tried to be �€˜in control�€™ of the situation in the said region and has been the propagator of �€˜democratic values�€™. While it�€™s understood that Obama has yet to complete his first year as President and there are many more issues he has to look into, South America has always been important with regard to the USA. 

But recent events in the said region have not managed to attract any hard-hitting sound bytes from Washington. In fact, in many cases, the policies have been very much as drawn up during the Bush Administration. The recent coup in Honduras and the events which followed perhaps was perhaps one of the best times for the Obama Administration to actually make a stand; however, the entire incident was marred by blunders. Though the UN was quick to ask for the return of the ejected President Mel Zelaya, the first statement issued by the White House did not even mildly denounce the coup. Later, President Obama did come out with a statement different from the earlier one, but perhaps it was a little too late. This clearly reflected the fact that his advisors for the region were not able to hand sound suggestions with regards to the situation. Had the Obama administration called for the re-instatement of Zelaya immediately, it would have managed to find an unnatural ally in the mould of Hugo Chavez. But that chance was squandered. 

A leader often viewed as the next Castro of the region, Chavez was always at loggerheads with the Bush administration. His name was on the top of the list of challenges Obama would face with regards to South America. Chavez himself has looked forward towards building better ties with the US during the Obama era. But even here, nothing substantial has taken shape. A handshake, an anti-American policy book and a brief exchange of hostile statements are the highlights of the Obama-Chavez relationship till date. The administration, for some reason, has been very quiet while Chavez has continued to expand his base by signing deals galore. He recently signed a large oil and energy deal with Iran which will see Venezuela export 20,000 barrels of oil every day to Iran for an estimated value of $800 million. Both countries have also pledged to help develop each others oil fields. Chavez has also inked a deal with Russia which would see Venezuela obtain 2.2 billion dollars in credit to purchase nearly 100 T72 tanks and a series of anti-aircraft launchers from Russia. Actions which would normally witness heavy sound bytes from America have actually managed to create only a murmur.

The problem may actually be that both leaders are not able to mend their relations because of various kinds of pressure. If Obama tries to become too friendly with Chavez, his move would welcome unnecessary flak from the Far Right who see Chavez as a threat. This would also see Obama�€™s tag of being a �€˜socialist�€™ gaining a little more popularity. If Obama does otherwise and continues to fight Chavez verbally as Bush did, his image will take a beating. For that matter, even Chavez has not been able to take stock of Obama�€™s real stance and hence his unsure relation with the American leader continues.

Probably one of the main reasons behind such a stalemate is that South America does not feature on the priority list of the Obama administration presently. With the affairs in the Middle East and domestic policies being the main matters of concern, the southern continent has taken a backseat with regards to policy. But none the less, it can also be pointed out that a clear path has not been mapped with regards to dealing with the issues in the region. Some observers have said that leaving South America untouched in perhaps in the best interest of the US since the region is doing pretty well. But if that is the case, then a total hands-off situation is better than making wayward moves. Moves like deciding to increase the U.S. military presence at seven bases in Colombia without consulting South American governments drew a lot of statements of concern from leaders such as President Lula da Silva of Brazil and Michelle Bachelet of Chile. It is instances like such that will register in the minds of people who hoped for a new era under Obama, as this will easily equate his policies to those of Bush. America will have to be more active in the region and should stop interfering only when it has to satisfy its own interests. While one does not expect the US administration to come out and criticize trade deals which it sees as a threat, the absence of mature decisions and systematic dialogue building is alarming. It is indeed time to open up a little more and engage in more meetings with the Presidents from the south. The Summit of the Americas was perhaps only the first step towards restoring friendly north-south relations. The Obama administration has to understand that several such summits are required to regain back faith of a region which has been and will be very important to the US.