There is more to Indo-Pak conflict than the two being hostages to their history

There is more to India-Pakistan conflict than a contention over Kashmir. There is more to Pakistan�€™s demand for Kashmir than merely religion or politics or merely the valley. So reveals The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relation authored by Sundeep Waslekar. The sections of the book artistically named Fire, Water and Earth signifies the ideological driving force of the conflict, problem over water resources and action on ground level.

The beauty of the book is that it doesn�€™t tell you more of the same things that you hear about the India-Pakistan dispute. It is an antithesis of the stereotype concept that India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, are hostages to their history since 1947. It�€™s a clash about our perception and self-image in future. It is because Pakistan traces its identity to the advent of Islam in the subcontinent and it becomes a source of discomfort when placed against India�€™s perennial civilisation.

It tells you how Pakistan�€™s Kashmir agenda is about its practical future interests rather than religious obligation. The water and not its land and people constitutes the core issue for Pakistan. This is often unstated cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations. �€œThere is a great misunderstanding that Pakistan wants to annex the Kashmir valley for political reason. This option would mean major disaster for Pakistan, as it will lose Chenab resulting in up to 17% reduction in water flows. Also, the Indus Waters Treaty may stand dissolved�€� Therefore, Pakistan is not interested in Kashmir alone. Pakistan wants Kashmir plus those districts of Jammu that form the catchment area of the Chenab�€ (p.X)

�€œPakistan�€™s per capita water availability has declined from 5,600 cubic metres at the time of independence to 1,200 cubic metres in 2005. It is expected to reach the threshold level of 1,000 cubic metres before 2010 or perhaps 2007. Groundwater table is depleting in 26 of 45 canal commands�€� Pakistan needs fresh sources of water in areas where dams can be constructed. As a result, Pakistan has been proposing, through tack-two diplomacy, that it should be given parts of the Kashmir valley and Jammu, so that it can have physical control on the Chenab basin. India cannot oblige Pakistan since water availability in India�€™s northern provinces has been declining, leading to conflict between Punjab and Haryana�€. (P.IX)

The Final Settlement

Sundeep Waslekar, Strategic Foresight Group

Pp 110; Rs 250

The book also quashes the notion that J&K would be the ultimate apple for Pakistan. �€œ�€�except for Hizbul Mujahideen and Tehreek-ul Mujahideen, the remaining eight (major militant organisations in Pakistan) aspire to destroy India, create a theocratic state covering the entire subcontinent or indeed the whole world. For them, Kashmir is just one item on their agenda�€ (p. 17)

�€œThe strategy of HUJI (Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami) is to capture the state of Pakistan, eastern provinces of India and the western neighbours of Central Asia�€� LeT has eight objectives. The top seven relate to the creation of Islamic order in the world. Even though as of now LeT is mainly active in Kashmir, its stated objective is to challenge the West and to establish universal Islamic community. It projects the United States to be its primary enemy, Israel and India as American stooges that need to be dismembered, and Kashmir as a mere irritant�€ (p.13-15). The theatre for Indo-Pakistan conflict is not restricted to Kashmir. �€œAt the beginning of 2005, the theatre of conflict stands expanded to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal�€.

Apart from being precise on technical details, being up to date is another forte of the book. The book warns us against further territorial reorganisation of the subcontinent as a sequel to Partition, 1947 and Liberation of Bangladesh, 1971. It warns us against mistaking hope for results in India-Pakistan peace when both countries have conducted 20 missile tests in the last 16 months and shopping for conventional weapons. It suggests the transformation of the Line of Control into Line of Cooperation and gradual amity between people of India and Pakistan.

The reviewer is a Rajya Sabha MP and convener of BJP�€™s think-tank

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