This initiative is an innovative approach to engage experts, leaders, and other people of the Middle East in collaboratively assessing future risks, at a time when there has been complete failure to engage the parties in a negotiating process to find lasting solutions to the conflict. Since SFG already has expertise in the cost of conflict concept, as well as other scenario methodologies, it is proposed to engage experts from all parts of the Middle East to use these methodologies for futuristic assessment of the region. The report produced from this exercise will be publicised widely to engage public opinion.

The initiative has attracted initial interest from important international actors. The Department of Foreign Affairs of AK Party of Turkey and Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland co-hosted the planning workshop to define the parameters of the project at Antalya , Turkey on 15-16 March 2008. The League of Arab States announced at the workshop that they will extend full cooperation to the project. Also, many research institutes in the Middle East offered their full support in the research process. Several governments and leaders are exploring their engagement with this initiative. SFG has deployed a dedicated research team for the project. The input from research, workshops, and consultations will contribute to a report, which will be prepared in a reader-friendly and illustrated style. The final report will be ready by the end of 2008 and launched at a major international event at the end of the year or in early 2009. It is expected to lead to a debate in the Middle East as well as other countries with stakes in the region.

More than 35 experts from Israel , the Palestine territories and Turkey participated in the planning workshop - along with experts from Norway and Switzerland , the two countries that have been involved in significant peace-making efforts in the region, respectively known as the Oslo Process and Geneva Initiative. The participants included former cabinet ministers, heads of major research institutes in their countries, and advisers to governments.

SFG will consider holding a substantive workshop in the summer of 2008.   

Managing Global Challenges

In 2006, Strategic Foresight Group along with Geneva based Horasis group, headed by Dr. Frank-Jurgen Richter, former director of the World Economic Forum, introduced the seminar series Managing Global Challenges. Dr. Richter advises leading business companies on globalisation strategies. He has lived, studied and worked in Asia for almost a decade where he developed and managed European multinationals’ Asia operations. Dr Richter has authored and edited 25 books on global strategy. His most recent books include: Global Future (Wiley, 2005) and China: Enabling a New Era of Changes (Wiley, 2003).

The seminar series is for business and government leaders on the future state of the world, emerging global strategies, dynamics of globalization and sustainability. The seminar provides participants with analytical tools to develop strategic foresight and shows how to redefine their role in today’s fiercely competitive economics. The seminars are conducted as a blend of lectures, case studies and scenario workshops. Each seminar is custom made, focusing on one or more of the issues facing the country at whose request it is conducted to address the specific needs of the client. The seminar series is unique as it draws upon a number of resources not available to the general public. These include:

• Insight from interaction with global leaders
  
  
• Multi-disciplinary research laboratory at SFG offices in Mumbai
  
  
• Policy exposure of seminar leaders to China, India, the Middle East. Europe and North America
  
  
• Combination of ground level experience and sophisticated conceptual tools
  
  
• Exposure to decision making in government as well as business.
  

The Managing Global Challenges Seminar engages the participants in collaborative learning about long term trends and discontinuities facing their countries and sectors.

What is Strategic Foresight?
Strategic Foresight Group has developed an analytical framework to project the futures of countries and regions. This involves the following three steps:

• Identification of drivers, i.e driving forces, which will force a change
  
  
• Use of the following tools: trends, discontinuities, forecasts and wild cards with respect to the drivers
  
  
• Visualizing alternative scenarios.
  

The first of its kind took place in Malaysia.

Report on Managing Global Challenges Seminar: Scenarios for Malaysia

Alexandria Workshop Report:
International Workshop on Global Extremism, Terror and Response Strategies.

6-7 August 2006
Alexandria, Egypt

Strategic Foresight Group and SMWIPM Institute for Peace Studies at Bibliotheca Alexandrina jointly organized a workshop on global extremism, terror and response strategies at Alexandria, Egypt, on August 6-7, 2006. It was supported by the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and attended by 20 experts from different parts of the world. The participants presented analysis of terrorism and extremism in their respective regions and their suggestions for addressing the problem.

Introduction:

Extremism and terrorism are plagues that take humanity back to the dark ages, a time when human life had no value, and violence prevailed over the rule of law. It is, therefore, of paramount importance to start examining the roots of these phenomena and to discuss appropriate response strategies that must be implemented in order to combat these modern day crises.

Today, there is a global misconception, which tends to think of extremism and terrorism as interchangeable terms. Similarly, there is a growing tendency to equate terrorism with religion, particularly Islam. However, if we were to look at the facts, we will find that out of all the terrorist attacks carried out in the last four years, only 10% of these attacks were executed by groups that align themselves with a particular religion, or act in the name of a religion. Instead 90% of terrorist attacks that were executed have been carried out by groups who have leftist or other ideological agendas. Furthermore, this confusion between extremism and terrorism needs to be addressed in order to better implement a global policy of appropriate response strategies.

According to the UN Resolution 1556 and the High-Level Panel, terrorism is an act, which involves bodily harm to non-combatants or non-military targets. On the other hand, there are extremist groups that use propaganda warfare and may encourage violent action, but are not openly involved in any kind of direct violence. It is important to recognize that these groups are likely to be a much greater challenge in the coming decade examples of such groups include the Islamic Front, Hizb ut-Tahrir, founded in Jordan, located in Central Asia, and currently gaining a large following in Europe. Although Hizb ut-Tahrir is not itself a terrorist organization, it is an extremist group in terms of its propaganda and other tactics. Similarly, there are other leftist organizations that are not exactly involved in terrorist acts but that are involved in extremist and absolutist propaganda. The question to be asked is how does one address a challenge posed by an extremist organization that does not actually commit criminal acts under the jurisdiction of any country but does, nonetheless, propagate an absolutist ideology, which could promote terrorism?

To answer this question and to find appropriate response strategies for this global phenomenon, we need to look at the issues of terrorism and extremism through regional perspectives, their causes and possible response strategies that can be implemented to face this dangerous threat to world peace and human life.

Download Report: Alexandria Workshop Report