Publications and Research |
 The Indus Equation
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The first section of this paper provides a comprehensive overview of
Pakistan's water situation; the second part discusses points of contention
between India and Pakistan regarding the shared Western Rivers of the Indus
and the conclusion provides the final analysis and recommendations that will
assist water cooperation between these two nations in the future.
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 Big Questions of Our Time
US $10 INR Rs. 300
plus shipping charges
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Over the next 50 years, scientific, technological, economic,
environmental, political and philosophical challenges for humanity will
converge. Is our fragmented architecture of global governance capable of
coping with it?
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BQOT: Preface and Table of Contents
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 Himalayan
Solutions: Cooperation and Security in the River Basins
USD $15 INR Rs. 750
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The report includes ten specific recommendations to find
solutions to water and environmental challenges in the Himalayan River
Basins. This report follows up on our previous report "The Himalayan
Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia" which had provided long term
scenarios of problems facing the region.
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 The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water, 2011
USD $45 INR Rs. 1,800
Plus Shipping Charges |
The report provides 20-year forecasts and far reaching recommendations
which can transform water from crisis to an opportunity. The scope of the
report covers Israel, Palestine Territories, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
and Turkey. It introduces a new concept of peace based on mutual stakes in
survival and prosperity between different societies.
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The Blue Peace: Highlights in English
The Blue Peace: Highlights in Arabic
The Blue Peace: Summary of Recommendations
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 The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia, 2010
USD $30 INR Rs. 1,500
Plus Shipping Charges |
The Himalayan River Basin in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal are
home to about 1.3 billion people - i.e. almost 20% of the world's population and
almost 50% of the total population in all of these countries. In the next 20 years,
annual per capita water availability in the basin will decline by 13-35% in these
countries causing severe conditions of water scarcity. This report opens our eyes to the challenges of the next half century and
proposes innovative solutions to prevent or atleast mitigate the crisis.
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Executive Summary of Himalayan Challenge
Dhaka Declaration on Water Security, January 2010
Kathmandu Workshop Report, August 2009
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 The Cost of Conflict in the Middle East
USD $40 INR Rs. 1,800
Plus Shipping Charges |
In this report Strategic Foresight Group makes a detailed assessment of the economic, social, military, environmental, political and diplomatic costs of conflict in the Middle East. In keeping with our previous Cost of Conflict reports,
COCME is fully presented in the form of graphs and diagrams.
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COCME report: Contents Page
Excerpts from the Report
Comments
Media Coverage
Discussions at UN, WEF, UK Parliament & Other Forums
COCME Spanish Cover Pages
COCME Spanish Foreword, Preface and Introduction
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 Inclusive Semi-Permanent Conference for the MiddleEast
USD $ 20.INR Rs. 635 |
| Strategic Foresight Group presents its latest report on an innovative mechanism to find sustainable solution to conflicts in the Middle East. Foreword by The Rt. Hon. Lord Alderdice, former Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly
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Global Security and Economy: Emerging Issues, 2008
US$ 20 adn INR. 625 |
Strategic Foresight Group presents its report on issues that will have greatest impact on the 21st century. Surprises are in store. Will the United States and Iran enter into strategic cooperation? Will the technological base of the world economy change in a fundamental way by 2020? Will extremism replace terrorism as the greatest risk to global security? Will a new global philosophical discourse appear on the world stage? The report debates these and other critical issues. |
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An Inclusive World:
In which the West, Islam
and the Rest have a stake, 2007
US$ 15 or INR 625 |
 Available in Arabic.
The Institute for Peace Studies affiliated with the Suzanne Mubarak Women's International Peace Movement and hosted by the Bibliotheca Alexandrina issued an Arabic version of An Inclusive World.
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| The greatest challenge of the 21st century is for us to come together to discover our common identity, reaffirm and restore core human values, to appreciate our common history and to create a shared future. In order to shape an inclusive world in which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake, it is necessary to shift from the centuries old model based on the doctrine of force, to a model based on the collaborative harnessing of the spirit of humanity. The use of force in the name of religion, ideology, race or other belief systems underpins the pursuit of power. It is in the essential nature of states to seek and expand power. It is in the essential nature of human beings to explore the principles of co-existence. We need to achieve a basic balance between power and principles. An Inclusive World: In which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake, is an essay deriving insight from a study of incidences of terror in all parts of the world and reviews why terrorism takes places in all parts of the world – Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. It examines why extremism may replace terrorism as the greatest threat to world security and engulf politics of the United States and Europe. It exposes contradictions in self serving Eastern and Western discourse. It also envisages the framework for a sustainable global security architecture, where co-existence triumphs over discord and hope wins over fear. It proposes building blocs of an alternative future that are politically feasible as well as presents action plans for a series of initiatives for leaders, experts, and civilians to collaborate on. |
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 Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka, 2006
US$ 30 or INR 625
SOLD OUT
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| Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka report uses creative analytical tools developed by the Strategic Foresight Group to assess the impact of conflict on different sections of Sri Lankan economy and society as well as its comprehensive impact on the future of the nation. The report builds on and studies not only the direct costs of conflict such as human deaths, increased military expenditure, or economic losses in the form of lowered foreign direct investment or losses in tourism. But, it also studies the effects of a two decade plus conflict in promoting societal corrosion and segregation, political polarization and extremism and regional disparity. The report also provides 2005-2010 scenarios for Sri Lanka under the differing situations of peace, ceasefire and conflict.
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 Second Freedom South Asian Challenge 2005-2025, 2005
US$ 25 or INR 625
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The objective of this report is to examine the challenges facing South Asia in the next 20 years at a time when the region is likely to be influenced by global developments as well internal dynamics. The report studies the various economic, social, political, security sectors in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal to come up with future projections for each of these individual nations as well as the common reality for the region. The report demonstrates the factors likely to affect the region from 2005-2025 and the impact it is likely to have on the region. It states that South Asia will encounter a world where the basic concepts of sovereignty of state, separation of religion and polity, and the unity of super-force and super-power will be challenged, and the world will see a shift from the West to the East. It also studies the impact of changes in geopolitics in the neighboring region, the impact of wildcards such as path breaking technological innovation and development or the use of a nuclear weapon by a state or non state actor.
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 The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations, 2005
US$ 22 or INR 250 |
The International Herald Tribune calls it ‘Kashmir’s real story!” The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations, is an honest, though biting analysis of the psychology and ground realities of the two countries based on the comprehensive understanding of developments taking place over the last three decades. The conflict between India and Pakistan currently extends to the entire South Asian region, from Afghanistan to Bangladesh. Of this wide spread conflict, the Jammu & Kashmir component is known internationally. The Jammu & Kashmir issue itself has several dimensions. To India, it is a test of secularism. To Pakistan, it is a source of strategically important rivers. To the people of Jammu & Kashmir, it is a matter of living in peace with dignity. Therefore, in all its complexity, the search of a final settlement between the two must be based on an analysis of the three essential elements in the bilateral relationship – fire, water and earth. In this report, SFG states that a final settlement between the two will have to be based on realistic analysis of the water situation in the entire Indus River Basin – an element, hitherto unknown.
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 Brussels Consensus, 2004 |
The Brussels Consensus was the document on the principles and policies for a safer world that was adopted by the participants of the Second International Roundtable at the European Parliament. The Brussels Consensus is a set of innovative policy measures, including principles of sustainable global security, zero tolerance for acts of terror, a strategy of disaggregation while dealing with groups engaging in terror, and international cooperation for the transformation of societies at risk.
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 Pakistan's Provinces, 2004
US$ 15 or INR 295
SOLD OUT
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Pakistan’s biggest challenge will be in the context of relations between the federal government and the provinces. The future of Pakistan's provinces will have bearing on geo-politics of the entire region. Any tension between NWFP and the rest of Pakistan will impact Afghanistan. Problems in Balochistan will affect Afghanistan and Iran. Friction between Punjab and Sindh can cause, in the extreme case, massive refugee influx into India. Thus, the future of Pakistan's provinces will subtly govern the future of extended South Asia. An analysis of Pakistan's provinces, at this juncture, is thus pertinent and Pakistan’s Provinces does just that. The study begins with a macro overview of Pakistan's economy followed by inter-provincial comparisons that are based on our understanding of Pakistan's economy and society. The subsequent chapters deal with each province separately. Finally, our perspectives are synthesized in an effort to outline future scenarios for Pakistan.
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 Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan, 2004
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For the first time in the 57 years of hostility between India and Pakistan a comprehensive assessment of the cost of conflict between the two countries has been made by Strategic Foresight Group in this report. The past assessment of the cost of conflict has been limited to military expenditure and opportunity cost of trade. The Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan, takes into account comprehensive economic costs, socio-political damage, military costs, diplomatic costs, human costs and even the implications of the nuking of Mumbai and Karachi. The report has also estimated Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) of Kashmir and Pakistan and likely financial and human costs that the two countries will incur in the next five years if they do not consolidate the gains made at the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in January 2004. It is a rare document, presented in graphical form for easy and quick comprehension by decision makers.
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 Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia, 2003
US$ 60 or INR 1350
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Launched on the eve of the US attack on Iraq, Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia addresses tensions between the impact of events and underlying structural realities in Undefined Asia – consisting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Though undefined as it is outside any established institutional arrangements or group of nations, it is interlinked by oil, terrorism, and strategic concerns of big powers. As the US military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq creates a spell of uncertainty many questions are bound to come to surface. Will the US actions in Undefined Asia primarily determine the future of the region? Or are there internal dynamics, which render US actions superficial? Many of the predictions made in Shifting Sands have proved to be correct within a few months of its publication. The report had predicted the withdrawal of American forces from Saudi Arabia, armed skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, rise of terrorism in Undefined Asia following the US victory in Baghdad. Many other predictions await the test of time. In order to understand what will happen in the world’s largest hot spot in the first decade of the twenty first century, the report is a must read for everyone.
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 Rethinking India’s Future: Prosperity of the Periphery, 2002
US$ 25 or INR 625
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The report outlines India’s development model that has created three economies- business class, bike and bullock cart economy. Will this division of the Indian economy cause a division of the Indian mind, or will unity of the Indian mind lead to the integration and transformation of the Indian economy? What does the future hold for India? Three scenarios have been put forward: Breakdown, Break-up and Breakthrough. What will be the appropriate strategies to make the best scenario possible? Will India manage to place herself in a virtuous cycle of prosperity and peace? This report provides insightful and innovate answers to these questions. It is essential reading for anyone who is interested in India’s future.
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 The Future of Pakistan, 2002
US$ 45 or INR 1050 |
The Future of Pakistan looks at Pakistan in view of its central role in the war in Afghanistan. General Pervez Musharraf has supported the US led coalition and vowed to free Pakistan of sectarianism and terrorism. Can he succeed? How long will he survive in the hot seat in Rawalpindi? What will be the policies of his successor? Will orthodox religious forces seize control of the Pakistani state, and if so when? How will Pakistan’s economy perform in the next ten years? Will there be adequate food and water? Will Sindh and Baluchistan try to separate from Pakistan? Will there be a war between India and Pakistan? What will be the cause of the next major India-Pakistan war, since it will not be over Kashmir? Will nuclear weapons be used? The report answers the above questions and more, using scientific methods of strategic foresight. Since its publication in May 2002, many of the forecasts made in the report have already come true.
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