Asian Security Initiative

May, 2009

Challenges of Water Stress and Climate Change in the Himalayan River Basins Collaborative Dialogue Process

SFG proposes to examine the impact of water stress and climate change in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal and explore collaborative solutions to prevent future crisis. This assumes significance in light of growing scarcity of water in India and China and future threats emanating from climate crisis for water scarcity and eco-systems in the entire region.

The first workshop is to held in August 2009.

Background

Strategic Foresight Group has identified water scarcity in emerging economies as one of the five most significant issues that will have an impact on the world. At an international conference on Responsibility to the Future: Business, Peace, Sustainability held in Mumbai on 26-28 June 2008, organised by Strategic Foresight Group, co-hosted by the United Nations Global Compact, inaugurated by the President of India and attended by over 250 experts, one of the recommendations from the panel on Food and Water Security was the need to address water stress in the Himalayan River Basins. The Himalayan region faces most serious threats of water stress, with implications for internal and cross-boundary development and security for countries in the region.

The demand for water in China and India is increasing thanks to consistent GDP growth rates of 10% and 8% respectively, temporarily reduced to 8% and 6% in the context of economic slowdown. Traditionally, agriculture has been the greatest consumer of water. In the case of Asian economies, water consumption of agriculture, industry and household sectors is expected to increase – thus all sectors providing impetus for a growing demand.

While demand for water is expected to increase, there are disturbing signs of decrease in discharge of rivers. Such a decrease is most pronounced in low seasons lasting for 4-6 months and accounting for only 10-15% of annual discharge of each river. While average annual discharge figures are impressive, low season discharge in specific parts of the river make the river seasonal. For example, the Yellow River has already become seasonal in its lower reaches. Even in Bangladesh and Nepal, seasonal variations could result in scarcity of water in populated areas in 4-5 months of winter in the future. The problem is further exacerbated by pollution, sewage and inefficiency of river management. The Ganges which is treated as a holy river in Indian mythology has become a notorious testament to fresh water crisis on account of pollution and sewage.

The gap between demand and supply is likely to further worsen because of the impact of climate change on glaciers and precipitation in the Himalayan region. The Himalayan glaciers form the largest concentration of glaciers outside of the polar ice caps. Several environmental reports indicate that the Himalayan glaciers are melting at a fast pace due to global warming. In the short run, this phenomenon will cause floods. In the long run, important sources of water will dry out in industrialised and populated parts of Asia. Besides, the impact on precipitation is likely to create erratic and uncertain rainfall patterns influencing the flow of rivers in the future. The impact of climate change will not be confined to water stress. There will be “consequences of consequences” on economy, society, health, demography and society.

Early action should make it possible to find solutions to the anticipated problems. Technology can help increase productivity and reduce water consumption. For instance, industrialised countries have adapted technologies for efficient use of water. India needs 880 litres and China 370 litres of water to produce 1 dollar of GNP as compared to less than 4 litres in the United States and Europe. Water conservation strategies can also help.

In addition to the strategies to promote efficiency and conservation on the domestic front, India, China, Bangladesh and Nepal can benefit tremendously through collaborative actions such as:

• Explore cooperation to control flood and to harness water for navigation and hydroelectricity.
• Combine their forces together to shift the technological base of their agriculture and industry to the one based on clean technologies and sustainable practices. If they succeed in doing this, they may be able to manage the climate risk and its implications for river flows.
  
• Join hands to demand technology transfer for cleantech and water efficiency technologies from the Western countries, where they will be in a much better position to negotiate on a collective basis than on an individual basis.
• Explore data sharing in mutually beneficial ways, as seasonal and geographical variations are of vital importance for planning a future strategy.

• Gradually move towards comprehensive sub-regional cooperation drawing lessons from other initiatives such as the Greater Mekong Sub-regional Cooperation Project. Such cooperation can create very unprecedented and innovative avenues covering a broad range of spheres including trade and tourism, transport, energy, disaster management, agriculture, and managing climate change.

In order to pursue the above objectives, it is necessary to create a dialogue mechanism involving policy experts from China, India, Bangladesh and Nepal with a particular focus on developing cooperation in the Central and Eastern Himalayan region, which is shared by these countries.

Collaborative Dialogue Process

Considering the enormity of the challenge, there is at present paucity of collaborative efforts to assess future challenges and explore response strategies. The World Bank has the Abu Dhabi Dialogue which brings together experts from the broader region on a periodic basis. Experts from the region also meet at international conferences. However, preliminary inquiries by SFG indicated a strong need for systematic, collaborative and regular mechanism for dialogue.

SFG has secured support from The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to host a series of workshops to discuss collaborative solutions to water stress and climate change in the Central and Eastern Himalayan region. SFG aims to invite policy experts from relevant countries and international institutions that have been working on issues of water stress and climate change. SFG will coordinate with other processes like the World Bank's Abu Dhabi Dialogue so as to enhance productivity of similar efforts.

Each workshop is envisaged to have about 20-25 experts – approximately 5 each from China, India, and 4 each from Bangladesh, and Nepal and 4 from international institutions.

Objectives

1. To assess future challenges related to river water security in India, China, Bangladesh and Nepal and their impact on socio-economic conditions and eco-systems.
2. To create collaborative learning on lessons and best practices from what is being done internally by the different countries dependant on water from the Central and Eastern Himalayas.
3. To create collaborative learning on international experiences in best practices in river management, both internal and trans-boundary river flows.
4. To explore possibilities and strategies for sub-regional cooperation in managing water stress and impact of climate change